{"id":2034,"date":"2025-11-17T15:32:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T20:32:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T10:31:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T14:31:32","slug":"nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/","title":{"rendered":"NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth: NAR Predicts Double-Digit Growth in Home Sales in 2026 With Prices Rising 4%: Mistakes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. housing market will finally turn the corner in 2026, with a double-digit increase in home sales supporting a 4% increase in home prices, according to new predictions from the National Association of Realtors\u00ae.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth<\/strong> helps improve planning, consistency, and publishing quality when teams follow a repeatable workflow.<\/p>\n<p>NAR Chief Economist <strong>Lawrence Yun<\/strong> forecasts sales volume for existing homes will rise 14% next year after three years of stagnation, and sees new-home sales rising 5%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNext year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,\u201d Yun said on Friday at a NAR conference in Houston. \u201cHome prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yun believes that job growth will remain solid in 2026, with the economy adding 1.3 million jobs. That trend, along with ongoing shortages of available housing supply, will support 4% growth in home prices next year, he predicts.<\/p>\n<p>The optimistic forecast follows three straight years of the lowest volume of home sales since 1995, after affordability concerns pushed many prospective homebuyers to the sidelines.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This year, the typical age of first-time homebuyers rose to an all-time high of 40, in a clear signal that home ownership remains out of reach for many young families.<\/p>\n<p>One year ago, Yun said he hoped that the worst of the housing downturn was over, and predicted that existing home sales would rise 9% in 2025, with new-home sales jumping 11%.<\/p>\n<p>Those forecasts did not come to fruition, with the economist now estimating that existing home sales will remain flat at 0% growth through 2025, and new-home sales will fall 2% from last year.<\/p>\n<p>However, Yun believes that 2026 will be the year that sales finally rebound from multidecade lows, supported by a solid job market and slight easing of mortgage rates.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMortgage applications have been consistently above last year, implying that people\u2019s desire to enter the market has been consistently positive,\u201d Yun said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_81 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title ez-toc-toggle\" style=\"cursor:pointer\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/#Modest_decline_in_mortgage_rates_could_boost_sales\" >Modest decline in mortgage rates could boost sales<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/#Boomers_continue_to_dominate_housing_market\" >Boomers continue to dominate housing market<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/#NAR_Predicts_DoubleDigit_Growth_What_to_Plan_Before_You_Start\" >NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth: What to Plan Before You Start<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/#External_Resources\" >External Resources<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/#FAQ_NAR_Predicts_DoubleDigit_Growth\" >FAQ: NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/#What_should_be_planned_first\" >What should be planned first?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-modest-decline-in-mortgage-rates-could-boost-sales\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Modest_decline_in_mortgage_rates_could_boost_sales\"><\/span>Modest decline in mortgage rates could boost sales<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>For months, the Mortgage Bankers Association&#8217;s survey data has shown mortgage applications to buy a home have trended well above last year&#8217;s level, although so far that trend has not translated to a notable increase in sales.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s because a shrinking share of mortgage applications are actually translating into closings, with MBA data showing that in the first half of 2025, just 55% of mortgage applications through banks closed, down from 77% in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>But Yun expects that a gradual improvement in conditions for buyers will translate into more homebuyers closing deals in the coming year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,\u201d Yun said. \u201cIt\u2019s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/na.rdcpix.com\/d63a5821a454399dceb57947832e04eew-c301827574srd_q80.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1089868\" title=\"\"><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The economist forecasts mortgage rates will average around 6% in 2026, down from a roughly 6.7% overall average for this year.<\/p>\n<p>Yun cautions that mortgage rates are unlikely to return to the 3% level seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, but predicts that even minor decreases in mortgage rates could unlock substantial buyer activity.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-boomers-continue-to-dominate-housing-market\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Boomers_continue_to_dominate_housing_market\"><\/span>Boomers continue to dominate housing market<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Despite his forecast for a 2026 rebound, Yun acknowledges that the housing market remains deeply uneven, with cash buyers and baby boomers who have substantial equity holding the advantage.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe upper end of the market has been doing much better than the lower end,\u201d Yun said. <\/p>\n<p>Sales in the $750,000 to $1 million price range have seen some of the largest gains in 2025, while inventory remains constrained at lower price points.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, first-time buyers face steep obstacles to saving up for a down payment, including high rent, student loan debt, and child care costs, says NAR Deputy Chief Economist <strong>Jessica Lautz<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have haves and have-nots,\u201d she said. \u201cFirst-time home buyers are really struggling to get in, while those who have housing equity are building credit.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Recent survey data from NAR showed that first-time buyers accounted for just 21% of homebuyers in 2025, an all-time low. Meanwhile, cash buyers accounted for 26% of sales, an all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>A whopping 30% of repeat buyers paid cash and did not finance their homes, with many of these buyers likely using substantial equity from the sale of a prior home to pay for their new house.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"NAR_Predicts_DoubleDigit_Growth_What_to_Plan_Before_You_Start\"><\/span>NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth: What to Plan Before You Start<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"External_Resources\"><\/span>External Resources<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/developers.google.com\/search\/docs\/essentials\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Google Search Essentials<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/developer.wordpress.org\/plugins\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WordPress Plugin Handbook<\/a> are useful references for best practices.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"FAQ_NAR_Predicts_DoubleDigit_Growth\"><\/span>FAQ: NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_should_be_planned_first\"><\/span>What should be planned first?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Start with the goal, audience, and deliverables so the final content and media support the same outcome.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Need help implementing this workflow?<\/strong> Contact Miami Real Estate Insights &amp; Market Trends to plan a practical content and media process.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth: NAR Predicts Double-Digit Growth in Home Sales in 2026 With Prices Rising 4%: Mistakes: The U.S. housing market will finally&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2035,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"7 Proven NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth Mistakes to Avoid","rank_math_description":"The U.S. housing market will finally turn the corner in 2026, with a double-digit increase in home sales supporting a 4% increase in home prices, according to","rank_math_focus_keyword":"NAR Predicts DoubleDigit Growth","rank_math_canonical_url":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/nar-predicts-double-digit-growth-in-home-sales-in-2026-with-prices-rising-4\/","rank_math_robots":"index,follow","footnotes":""},"categories":[1719],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-miami-real-estate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2034"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4088,"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2034\/revisions\/4088"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brickellsold.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}